The town’s public hospital system has moved round about 100 sufferers, primarily out of harder-hit hospitals within the Bronx and South Brooklyn and extra not too long ago Harlem, Dr. Mitchell Katz, head of the town’s hospital system, stated.
“So long as the numbers maintain drifting upwards, however not leaping, I’ll be wonderful,” Dr. Katz stated. Intensive-care items within the metropolis’s public hospitals have been at 70 p.c occupancy ranges, he stated.
Earlier within the month, Dr. Braithwaite thought it would take a shutdown of two or 4 weeks to stop rising instances from overwhelming the well being care system. However over the previous few weeks, the case counts have climbed comparatively slowly, with every case seeding about 1.2 new instances, he stated. That’s far beneath the extra dire predictions he was contemplating at the beginning of winter.
“It’s simmering alongside,” he stated of New York Metropolis’s epidemic.
Issues may change if the brand new variant begins to hurry up infections.
“That’s a purpose to vaccinate actually, actually rapidly,” Dr. Braithwaite stated.
But if the unfold continues at its present tempo, some public well being consultants say that vaccinations may start to carry New York’s epidemic underneath management earlier than hospitals are overwhelmed — even with none extra authorities restrictions or stay-at-home orders. And neither Mr. Cuomo or Mr. de Blasio has proven a lot urge for food for a full shutdown.
Dr. Jessica Justman, an infectious illness professional and epidemiology professor at Columbia College’s Mailman Faculty of Public Well being, stated that the gradual improve of instances in latest months displays the excessive degree of social distancing and masks carrying in New York Metropolis.
“You could possibly argue that the second wave represents a flattening of the curve,” she stated, “that each one the social distancing and masks carrying are doing what it’s supposed to do: flattening the curve so the well being care system isn’t overwhelmed.”